We are only two nights away now from the second big fight in as many weeks when Mexican superstar Canelo Alvarez takes on son of a Mexican legend and former middleweight titlist Julio Cesar Chavez Jr on HBO PPV. Before the main event, however, is a three fight undercard with a pair of big names and a prospects fight.
First unbeaten featherweight prospects Joseph Diaz and Manuel Avila meet in a matchup of two young fighters looking to move into title contention. Next former title challenger and fan favorite action star Lucas Matthysse returns after a year and a half layoff against Emmanuel Taylor. Finally, in the co-main event, power punching middleweight David Lemieux auditions for a fall fight with Canelo against former Chavez Jr opponent Marco Reyes. Let’s have a look at them in order.
Joseph Diaz (23-0, 13 KOs) vs Maniel Avila (22-0, 8 KOs), featherweights
Golden Boy is opening the card by matching two of their unbeaten prospects against one another in a classic “someone’s oh must go” fight. I believe that Golden Boy favors “Jojo” Diaz here, just look at where they have been featuring the two. 2012 US Olympian JoJo Diaz has fought his last four on HBO in one form or another while Avila has been stuck on little viewed Estrella TV. I don’t believe that Golden Boy would match Diaz, 24, with Avila, 25, here if they did not believe Diaz would prevail given the investment they’ve put in him, but at the same time they have to figure that if the upset were to occur at least they’d have the guy who did it.
Helping JoJo is that he has been the bigger man in his career having fought all his fights at featherweight since 2014. Avila has fought most of his fights at super bantamweight, once even making bantamweight proper, before starting his featherweight career four fights ago. Or is Avila the bigger man? He has a 2″ reach advantage and 1″ height advantage, so technically he is even if he hasn’t been fighting as the larger fighter.
Their resumes are more or less the same. Diaz has been beating guys with slightly better records, but Avila beat their one common opponent, Rene Alvarado, by wider scores. Both of them basically shut out everyone they fight and neither regularly stops guys. All in all this is about as even as a fight gets on paper. For a PPV opener in 2017, it is a pretty good fight.
Lucas Matthysse (37-4, 34 KOs) vs Emmanuel Taylor (20-4, 14 KOs), welterweights
It is kind of hard to believe that Lucas Matthysse has never truly held a world title. He has held two lesser versions of the WBC’s junior welterweight title, but never the real deal. His only two true title shots have come in his two most prominent losses to Viktor Postol and Danny Garcia. In the four belt era, it is really strange for a fighter of Matthysse’s caliber to not have held a belt.
Trying to prevent him from finding his way back to a third title shot is Emmanuel Taylor. I wouldn’t count out his ability to do it either. Taylor is a true professional welterweight who gave very difficult nights to two top contenders in Adrien Broner and Antonio Orozco. Matthysse is always a threat to blow anyone out early with his huge power, but failing that Taylor will be there pressing forward for ten rounds.
Does Lucas Matthysse still even have big power at 147? Where is his head at after seeming to crack a bit against Postol? I certainly do not favor Taylor here, no one does, but I also will not dismiss his chances. This is partly because Taylor is a good fighter and partly because I do not entirely trust a 2017 welterweight version of Lucas Matthysse. Emmanuel Taylor is capable of winning this fight if he survives the early onslaught, but that is a big if.
Davis Lemieux (37-3, 33 KOs) vs Marcos Reyes, (35-4, 26 KOs), middleweights
David Lemieux is here to smash Marco Reyes and create some potential excitement for a matchup with Canelo come September if Canelo/GGG does not pan out. Will he? Probably. Of all four fights on the card, including the main event, this is the most mismatched fight. David Lemieux already probably has the knockout of the year in the bag with his one punch obliteration of Curtis Stevens, maybe he will add another candidate here.
Marcos Reyes cannot be completely counted out though, even if he does remain a longshot. For one, Lemieux is a pretty flawed fighter. He throws crude bombs and that is about it. He is always there to be hit. Second, Reyes is an okay fighter himself. In 2013 he beat Porky Medina in Mexico, since then Medina has gone on to prove to be a good middleweight. Two years later Reyes met Julio Cesar Chavez Jr and put on a very good showing in their super middleweight bout. He didn’t get the decision in a very close fight, but then again he probably wouldn’t have got it against Chavez if he had won every round anyway.
With that said, two fights ago Reyes was knocked out by journeyman Elvin Alaya. Alaya, a one time undeserving Arthur Abraham title challenger, is a guy that is brought in to lose to prospects. He has been stopped in one by both David Lemieux and Curtis Stevens, for example. Yet it was Alaya who got the TKO7 win over Marcos Reyes. I suspect Marcos will be stopped again here by Lemieux, maybe in highlight reel fashion. The real appeal of David Lemieux, however, is his flawed overall game. Lemieux is always a small threat to lose even when he is a bigger threat to score a devastating knockout.
