Mandatory viewing this weekend, fight fans. One of the highest level fights of 2016 is happening again this Saturday night on HBO PPV. Power punching Sergey Kovalev will look to avenge his narrow, somewhat disputed points loss to Andre Ward from last November in what was one of the best tactical fights of the year.
First and foremost, I agreed with the decision in the first fight. After the first two rounds, Sergey Kovalev (30-1-1, 26 KOs) struggled to build consistent momentum in the fight I was watching. The Russian destroyer would do good work here and there, a few times for a full round, but Andre Ward (31-0, 15 KOs) just seemed to figure him out overall. Fierce body work and a beautiful jab pretty consistently separated the Oakland based fighter from his Russian opponent. It was never a rout or even non-competitive, but Andre Ward seemed a step ahead, especially in the last third of the fight.
With that said, clearly plenty disagree with me. Who won Kovalev/Ward has been one of the most discussed topics in boxing circles since last November. The night of the fight media coverage was just as split on who deserved the decision. What we really learned that night was that twelve rounds was not enough time between the two pound for pound elites to establish who was the superior fighter with any real level of clarity. If we want to achieve certainty here, and oh do we ever, more time is needed. That time is Saturday night.
I do have concerns about the bout, however. First and foremost, the entire intrigue of the first fight was built around the unexpected early dominance of Sergey Kovalev. We had never seen Andre Ward in that sort of trouble. A previously untouchable fighter suddenly looked completely overwhelmed and, at times, downright terrified. Once Ward settled in and began to get a read on Kovalev, Sergey was unable to repeat the feat. What happens if he is still unable to find Ward enough to hurt him?
Furthermore, Andre Ward is truly one of the premier boxing minds of this generation of fighters. He has repeatedly shown a tremendous ability to figure fighters out and then bully them. Maybe the bullying isn’t aesthetically pleasing as Kovalev’s normal style, but it is extremely effective. He was not able to bully Kovalev, however, but he did frustrate him at times. Ward seemed to identify his jab and body work as the keys early on to turning the fight around. Then he implemented the plan and proved himself right. Kovalev has never really shown the ability to assess and change tactics. In his defense, he hasn’t had to, but mind for mind, so to speak, I would choose Ward’s as more likely to out think Kovalev’s without hesitation.
Finally, I wonder about Sergey Kovalev’s mental state. He seems so angry and bitter about the first meeting. He also seems to attribute his loss entirely on relying on judges, American judges to be more specific. This is not the kind of mentality that is going to lend itself well to being open for adjustments. What he does seem to be willing to change, at least judging by his recent media appearances, is his aggressiveness. If the Russian destroyer truly believes a knockout is his only chance as he cannot rely on what he sees as corrupt American judges, he is going to be pressing hard instead of letting the fight flow naturally. This is a recipe for disaster against a tactical opponent like Andre Ward.
It would clearly be better for boxing if Sergey Kovalev were to win this fight. Ward seems about to hang the gloves up any fight now. If Saturday night he were to prevail once more, there is at least a 50/50 chance that this would be his last performance. Andre Ward beating Kovalev again and then retiring only hurts the active boxing scene. Yet, I don’t know Kovalev he can actually be considered likely to win.
Kovalev certainly can win, but doing so would be through sheer power. Kovalev needs to hurt Ward again early in this fight. Without that in the first fight, he would have lost a clear decision. It is difficult to see that fact changing this go around. One area he could definitely improve on, however, is his footwork coming in. There were stretches in the fight in which Kovalev was downright chasing Ward. He’d come forward fast and recklessly enough that a little side slip was all Ward needed to use his momentum against him in order to escape. A calmer, more patient Sergey Kovalev focusing on laterally cutting off the ring would probably be able to get to Andre. I just can’t trust him to be calm or patient once he is in the ring though.
My prediction here is a wider, clearer decision for Ward. I also don’t think the fight will be as entertaining this time as I don’t expect the early success from Kovalev. I would absolutely love to be wrong, but I honestly think Andre Ward had Sergey Kovalev figured out by the end of their fight last November. With seven months to review now since then, he will only be further ahead. Contrast that with the fact that I do not believe Kovalev even thinks he needs to improve and it becomes exceedingly difficult to honestly predict anything other than a Ward wide decision win.
The show begins at 9 PM eastern on HBO and features the traditional three fight undercard. In the co-main event Guillermo Rigondeaux (17-0, 11 KOs) defends his WBA super bantamweight title against Moises Flores (25-0, 17 KOs). On one hand this is great because Ridondeaux is truly a pound for pound elite fighter and he is in against a very good challenger. On the other hand, Rigo is the worst watch in boxing. His fights have so little action that they can be quite difficult even for hardcore fight fans to sit through. Let’s just hope the fight does not kill the crowd before the main event.
Top prospect Dmitri Bivol (10-0, 8 KOs) is also in action against formerly Kovalev challnger Cedric Agnew (29-2, 15 KOs). Bivol is a truly elite prospect and it is great to see him showcased here. Middleweights Luis Arias (17-0, 8 KOs) and Arif Magomedov (18-1, 11 KOs) will also be in action against one another.
