Season one of the World Boxing Super Series comes to its conclusion tomorrow with an excellent super middleweight finale.
It hasn’t been easy for George Groves (28-3, 20 KOs) to become world titleholder, but that didn’t always look like it was going to be the case. For a little while, “Saint George” looked like a sure thing. The London native first received a huge break thirteen fights into his career when he was matched in a rare unbeaten prospects fight with Olympic gold medalist James DeGale for the British super middleweight crown. Groves gave us a textbook example that night in 2011 as to why those types of fights do not get made more often when he temporarily derailed the DeGale hype train by earning a decision win.
The suddenly red hot British prospect followed that win up by dismissing longtime top British domestic contender Paul Smith in two short rounds. In that moment it looked like a shoe in that Groves would be wearing a world title belt around his waist sooner rather than later.
It took two more years to find that title shot. A round into his world title opportunity with elite super middleweight titleholder Carl Froch didn’t do anything to change his ascendant narrative either. Groves had the normally iron chinned top fighter down and in all sorts of trouble in the opening frame. He didn’t get the finish, however. While the challenger was still leading the fight after eight, Froch would famously rally back in the ninth round to hurt George Groves and steal the fight back, but not without controversy. Many thought the fight was stopped much too soon. This issue was put to bed alongside George Grove’s consciousness in the rematch, however. There was no controversy the second time The Cobra stopped Saint George.
Now the narrative was decidedly different. Three fights later, it got worse too. While George Groves fought very well in his third title opportunity against Badou Jack in Las Vegas, the fight was ultimately a toss up type decision in which either man could have been crowned the victor. Badou Jack had his hand raised by the narrowest of margins. Suddenly after having been seemingly destined to be wed to a belt for years, George Groves was boxing’s bridesmaid. He stood near he altar three times without ever getting his jewelry.
It took the fight before the start of the World Boxing Super Series super middleweight tournament to finally get the three time failed title challenger his belt. After four wins in 2016, the WBA declared his fight with Fedor Chudinov to be for their super middleweight title. That highly entertaining fight from May of last year began with both men finding success, but Groves showed his class over the Russian as the fight became a beating by round three or four. After six rounds Chudinov was saved from further abused and George Groves was finally a titlist.
The London native made his first defense at Wembley against fellow Brit Jamie Cox in the first round of the initial World Boxing Super Series tournament in October, stopping his less world level experienced foe after four hard fought rounds. It wasn’t too dissimilar from the Chudinov fight. Groves took a lot of shots early in a fun war, but he gave just as much and more back along with proving his own superior durability to stop his challenger after a fun start. This led to a much hyped battle with Chris Eubank Jr in the semifinals that had some wondering if Eubank wasn’t a live underdog in the contest. Sure, the son of the British legend was a limited fighter technically, but he was a much better and more dynamic athlete than either Chudinov or Cox. If Groves were to engaged with him in the same way, maybe we’d have something.
That didn’t happen though. Though the scores ended up coming back reasonably close, George put on a solid technical performance to expose the limitations of his much less experience opponent. Eubank was limited to lunging while Groves casually popped him in response. It wasn’t necessarily exciting, especially in the first half, but it was the first time in a while that Groves used his notable skills over the length of a fight against a talented opponent rather than engaging in more of a war. He’ll need those skills tomorrow in Saudi Arabia.
27 year old Callum Smith (24-0, 17 KOs) has long been considered the crown jewel of the fighting Smith family. His three brothers have been competent professionals excelling at the European level and flirting with world titles, but they never really had the kind of talent to get over the top. The idea is that their baby brother does. At 28 now that is still more or less Smith’s story too. He’s yet to get that one step up win on world level, but he’s expected by most to be capable of it when he gets there. He’s there now.
We saw our first inkling of his ability in 2015 when Smith obliterated fellow unbeaten British prospect Rocky Fielding inside one round to win the British title. He followed up that dynamic performance with another first round stoppage to pick up the European belt as well. The youngest Smith brother is 5-0 since then, including a stoppage of solid British level fighter Luke Blackledge.
However, despite his clear win over talented (and since tragic) Swedish fighter Erik Skoglund in the first round of the World Boxing Super Series, Callum Smith actually lost some of his shine in the eyes of most that night. Smith struggled in the first half of that fight with Skoglund’s consistent jab. Through four rounds, it looked like maybe Smith was not going to be able to figure out how to deal with getting the simple shot in his face consistently. Skoglund wasn’t doing much else, but a simple jab had Callum befuddled in there. Eventually he adjusted and scored a late knockdown to seal the deal, but for the first time in his career Callum Smith didn’t necessarily look like a guaranteed future titleholder in that fight.
To me that made scheduled second round opponent Juergen Braehmer a very real theat to Callum Smith in the semifinals, but unfortunately that fight never came to fruition. After the German dropped out last minute, alternate Nieky Holzken stepped in. Holzken is a bit of a living kickboxing legend, but he was untested under boxing rules and a virtual unknown to fans of traditional boxing. The substitution was a disappointment to say the least. True to what could have been realistically expected, Smith only needed basic technique to cruise past his late substitute of an opponent. Holzken was physically talented enough to get some work in here and there, but not nearly enough to overcome Callum’s craft and win rounds.
While Juergen Braehmer may have given us some clarity into how much credence we should be giving Callum’s struggles against Erik Skoglund, Nieky Holzken was unable to do the same. Accordingly, the finale here is a bit of a mysterious contest to try to project. It is difficult to get a read on George Groves fight to fight. He might use his considerable skillset to keep himself safe and ahead, or he might brawl his way into a great fight for the fans. Plus, what I didn’t mention above is the fact that this fight was delayed for months due to a bad shoulder injury suffered by Groves late against Eubank. There was some question for a while if it wasn’t a career ender, apparently, and now he’s coming back with it reportedly healed without a tuneup. That could be a significant factor, whether it is an actual physical limitation or a psychological concern in the back of the titleholder’s mind. Then there is Callum Smith, the 28 year who is both a real contender at the weight and still somewhat of an untested prospect at this level. He’s looked like a killer at times, a technical wizard at others, and then paradoxically a man befuddled by a simple jab for rounds at a time.
How do I see this fight going? Can I submit a shrugging emoji and run away? No? Fine. With a gun to my head, I’d pick Callum Smith in a narrow fight. It is hard to trust George Groves to pull off the big win over twelve rounds. Plus, it is hard to project what shape his shoulder will be in. I do believe the titleholder is perfectly capable of putting forward a basic technical, jab heavy performance over twelve rounds to win a comfortable decision though. I just don’t trust him to do it over his younger, less shop worn, and bigger opponent.
DAZN has the broadcast in the US, the new to the market $10 per month sports streaming service available on a variety of devices. ITV Box Office has the show in the UK. Ring walks for the main event are set for 4 PM Eastern according to promoter Kalle Sauerland. This is despite the fact that the fight will take place in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia thanks to a big site fee offer to secure the finale. It’s disappointing from an atmosphere perspective that this major, tournament ending world title fight between two Brits isn’t in the UK, but it’ll air in UK prime time at least. The DAZN stream starts ate one and there is a full undercard. Unfortunately, there isn’t much of note on it. It is full of largely unknown prospects and co-headlined by a Chris Eubank Jr stay busy bout.
