Premier Boxing Champions went all on in FOX today.
Today’s Premier Boxing Champions’ line up for its inaugural run as a paid property on FOX has leaked out ahead of this afternoon’s scheduled press conference. The reported lineup spanning from December to April has been met with tepid social media reactions and rightfully so. It isn’t exactly inspiring stuff.
The main events are as follows:
- Dec 22nd – Jermall Charlo v Willie Monroe Jr
- Jan 26th – Keith Thurman v Josesito Lopez
- Feb 16th – Leo Santa Cruz v Miguel Flores
- March 9th – Shawn Porter v Yordenis Ugas
- March 16th (PPV) – Errol Spence Jr v Mikey Garcia
- April TBD – Danny Garcia v Adrian Granados
Spence-Garcia is what it is regardless of what I or anyone else thinks of the matchup competitively. At least it is two big names in against one another if nothing else, though it is also a PPV. Otherwise Porter v Ugas is fine, Garcia-Granados isn’t terrible, I guess, and… uh… That is it. Thurman-Lopez is a huge mismatch, as is Charlo-Monroe, and Santa Cruz-Flores absolutely takes the cake in that department. How is Miguel Flores in a FOX main event?
I’m not actually here to complain about that though. Plenty will voice those concerns over the next couple days. What I am here to speculate about is the future of Showtime Boxing relative to these fights being announced. It doesn’t look good on the surface.
Back at the tail end of summer and on the eve of PBC announcing its big rights deal with FOX, PBC and Showtime put out an announcement that they had signed a three year deal to formalize their relationship from 2019-2021. The announcement was oddly light on specific details, but it did say there would be a monthly series of events and that PBC would deliver a “significant expansion of live boxing coverage” starting in 2019. It seemed like business as usual for the two active partners at the time. Shortly thereafter the FOX deal was announced. This one had specific details. The broadcasting giant will be paying over $60 million dollars per year for ten shows on the main network and twelve on Fox Sports 1. Both deals allowed for PPV events.
We now know what the FOX deal looks like in its early days as the main events have been announced. What is Showtime looking like at Christmas and beyond? These are the shows that are scheduled for Showtime after the December 22nd start date of PBC’s deal with FOX:
- Jan 19th (PPV) – Manny Pacquiao v Adrien Broner
That’s it, and it isn’t even official yet. All signs are pointing to that date and the Showtime PPV treatment though. I’m comfortable including it.
It is easy to say that PBC and Showtime just haven’t put out their announcement yet for the same time period, that we just need to be patient and wait for it. I’m sure there will be fights announced too. My question is who these fights will feature. Pulling from PBC’s website in alphabetical order, here are the PBC listed fighters who had previously been main eventing Showtime shows who are not in a FOX main event with notes:
- Devon Alexander
Eleider Alvarez- Will be fighting Kovalev on ESPN
David Benavidez- Likely to return on Spence-Garcia PPV
- Andre Berto
Artur Beterbiev- With Matchroom/DAZN now
Marcus Browne- Legal trouble
- Gervonta Davis
James DeGale- Likely fighting in the UK
Sergiy Dervyanchenko- Just fought, unlikely to return by April
- Anthony Dirrell
- Andre Dirrell
- Robert Easter Jr
Carl Frampton- With Frank Warren/ESPN now
Jarrett Hurd- Will have just fought, unlikely to return by April
Daniel Jacobs- With Matchroom/DAZN now
Amir Khan- With Matchroom/DAZN now
- Erislandy Lara
- Sergey Lipinets
- Abner Mares
- Rocky Martinez
Victor Ortiz- Legal troubles
- Lamont Peterson
- Anthony Peterson
Caleb Plant- Likely fighting Jose Uzcategui on ESPN
- Peter Quillin
Emmanuel Rodriguez- Locked up in World Boxing Super Series
- Gary Russell Jr
Adonis Stevenson- Will have just fought, unlikely to return by April
- Austin Trout
- Jessie Vargas
Deontay Wilder- Will have just fought, unlikely to return by April
- J-Rock Williams
I apologize for how ugly that is, but I think it is appropriate. Plus, I wanted to clarify why I left so many names off the list. Let’s try it again with the struck out fighters removed.
- Devon Alexander
- Andre Berto
- Gervonta Davis
- Anthony Dirrell
- Andre Dirrell
- Robert Easter Jr
- Erislandy Lara
- Sergey Lipinets
- Abner Mares
- Rocky Martinez
- Lamont Peterson
- Anthony Peterson
- Peter Quillin
- Gary Russell Jr
- Austin Trout
- Jessie Vargas
- J-Rock Williams
That leaves 17 fighters still which is hardly a terrible count to presumably fill one date a month from January to April. Boy, I left some reaches on there though. Is Andre Dirrell still active? Has Anthony Peterson ever been active? Can the likes of Rocky Martinez or Peter Quillin actually main event a Showtime card? I don’t think so on any of those cases. Also, I don’t think Anthony Dirrell is a candidate either. He says he wants one more fight before retiring, a world title fight. He’s been ordered to fight Avni Yildirim for the vacant title and that fight should be booked soon. It is rumored for FS1. If Benavidez is going to co-main event Spence-Garcia, Anthony is his opponent in all likelihood. Let’s try this again then.
- Devon Alexander
- Andre Berto
- Gervonta Davis
- Robert Easter Jr
- Erislandy Lara
- Sergey Lipinets
- Abner Mares
- Lamont Peterson
- Gary Russell Jr
- Austin Trout
- Jessie Vargas
- J-Rock Williams
Ring Magazine reported earlier this month that Gervonta “Tank” Davis would be defending his belt against Abner Mares in January on either FOX or Showtime. I think we can safely say that is a Showtime main event. It isn’t a fight that can serve as an undercard bout to the FOX main event of the month in Keith Thurman-Josesito Lopez. That is a good January headliner we can pencil in for Showtime. What about after? Peterson-Vargas? Berto-Lipinets? Gary Russell Jr versus someone overmatched?
It should also be noted that these guy’s availabilities all also assume they don’t get snatched up for undercard bouts between then and now. Pacquiao-Broner will need three undercard fights. Assuming Benavidez-Dirrell happens, Spence-Garcia will need two. All four main network FOX shows will almost certainly be expanded to tripleheaders, yet only Thurman-Lopez has an undercard fight at all at this point in the form of a heavyweight battle between Adam Kownacki and Gerald Washington. Not only do we need to fill four main events on Showtime from January to April, but those have to at least have one undercard fight and traditionally all have been three fight shows as well. Al Haymon’s company has plenty of prospects and lower tier fighters I left off the list that could fill these spots, but the idea that none of the twelve fighters left above will be slotted in somewhere other than to fill a Showtime main event is pretty far fetched.
EDIT: Since posting this, Sergey Lipinets and Lamont Peterson have been taken off the board for a FS1 main event as well.
Showtime is not going to have a lot to work with at least over the first four months of 2019. That much is clear. Both Eddie Hearn of Matchroom Boxing and Bob Arum of Top Rank are on the record as to believing the premium network is not long for the sport at all. Clearly if this trend holds, they are only getting FOX’s leavings to work with from the Premier Boxing Champions roster. Could Bob and Eddie be right or are they spouting a bit of wishful thinking given that they are far away from the situation and essentially competitors?
I don’t know. No one does. The early signs aren’t great that Showtime are going to continue to be a consistent home of top fights, but there are some promising developments pointing to the premium network’s continued interest in staying invested in the sport. It was clear that Showtime was trying to invest in Regis Prograis last year despite his lack of involvement with Al Haymon or PBC. “Rougaroo” ended up in the World Boxing Super Series and has unfinished business on ESPN with Jose Ramirez, but his promoter Lou DiBella isn’t tied to anyone. They could try to lure him in at a later date. Furthermore, they are doing the same thing subtly with major prospects in Devin Haney and Jaron Ennis. Both prospects are serious blue chippers and both are currently being tucked away under the old low key ShoBox banners, but these two are not getting matched like traditional ShoBox prospects and their cards are airing well before the traditional 11 PM air time of the small time series. Neither Haney nor Ennis are PBC fighters. Is Showtime trying to position itself for a life past PBC?
I think so. Let me put on my wild speculation hat for a second and tell you what my gut is saying and why. I think Al Haymon wants to leave Showtime, but he is keeping them for now as a backup plan. It was clear from the formation of PBC that his goal was to be on the broadcast networks. It was the entire mission statement. He is hedging his bet a bit, however. Showtime has been a reliable home and would be somewhere to go back to if the FOX deal doesn’t get extended or get played into another big money arrangement elsewhere. I think Showtime knows this too and is attempting to prepare for a future in the sport in which they potentially do not have the PBC roster. It looks like they knew this was coming last year too when they aired a “Showtime Special Edition” card highlighting Prograis and they are continuing to build towards that direction with prospects they can find like Haney and Ennis that aren’t already tied into another network. From Showtime’s perspective, they need time to build up potential fighters to fill spots post-PBC anyway. Staying as PBC’s secondary broadcaster for three more years would buy that for them potentially.
I also believe Arum and Hearn know all this too, hence them both claiming that Showtime won’t be around long in the sport. Furthermore, I believe it might be telling that PBC secured its deal with Showtime before signing with FOX. Isn’t that an odd move on the surface? Announcing a rights deal with another network during the final days of negotiations of a potential game changing deal with FOX doesn’t make a whole lot of sense unless the broadcasting giant needed certain terms officially in place with Showtime before they’d agree to share rights on some level. With the benefit of hindsight, it is probably quite telling that FOX’s deal with PBC had all sorts of details and numbers released while Showtime and PBC’s had absolutely none. Did Showtime get backed into a corner and outright agree to largely play second string here? Maybe. It certainly seems like a real possibility with all the facts and developments since laid out in front of us.
That’s my take on it all. Again, every word of the future predictions there was all speculation and educated guesses on my part. I do believe there is a solid chance this is all the truth though. It makes a lot of sense. I don’t believe Showtime is looking to exit, but Hearn and Arum may prove to be right in the end. What content is left for them? Would boxing programming largely driven by say Lou DiBella fighters drive subscriptions in any way, shape, or form? Old Lou has quietly been separating himself from PBC and rebuilding a nice little roster, but it doesn’t have much name value on it. There isn’t anyone else left either.
Will Showtime end up just waving the white flag like HBO sooner rather than later? It is a sad but increasingly realistic looking possibility.
